Fill up today, or wait?
A daily Toronto gas price forecast — three signals, one verdict.
Prices roughly flat — expecting only a 1¢/L move by Sunday.
+1¢/L expected over the next ~3 days · Today's Toronto median: 178¢/L
Toronto's weekly cycle (last 90 days)
Lower bars = cheaper days. In Toronto, Tuesday is typically the cycle low and Wednesday sees the weekly retail spike.
Why this verdict?
weekly cycle takes ~1.0¢ off; 7-day average is climbing (+2.3¢).
- Weekly cycle: -1.0¢
- 7d vs 21d trend: +2.3¢
- WTI crude (5d): -0.1¢ — now $84.25 USD/bbl
- wholesale rack (5d): 0.0¢
As of Jul 31, 2026, 2:26 p.m.
What's driving today's call
The predictor blends four signals. Two are local (Toronto's weekly cycle and 7-day trend), two are upstream commodities that pass through to the pump with a known lag.
How the prediction is built
- Weekly cycle (40% weight typically). We compute the median Toronto price for each day of the week from the last 90 days, then ask: "what does the day-of-week pattern say prices should do over the next two days?"
- Trend (20%). 7-day moving average vs 21-day moving average. If the short average is above the long average, prices are climbing — and we project 60% of that move forward over three days.
- WTI crude (20%). Roughly $1/barrel translates to ~0.85¢/L at the Canadian pump, with a 5–10 day lag. We look at the change in the past 5 days.
- Ontario wholesale rack (20%). Pump prices typically follow rack moves within 1–3 days. A rack spike overnight is one of the strongest "fill today" signals.
Each component returns a signed cents-per-litre value. We add them up, classify the total against simple thresholds, and call it. The model is intentionally simple — it's a heuristic, not a black-box ML model.
FAQ
Why are Toronto prices usually cheapest on Tuesday?
Toronto follows what economists call an Edgeworth retail price cycle. Stations undercut each other through the week — prices drift down Sunday/Monday, hit a low on Tuesday, then one chain raises overnight Tuesday→Wednesday and the rest match within hours. The cycle then repeats. The pattern is well-documented in Toronto news coverage and Competition Bureau studies of Canadian retail gasoline.
How accurate is this prediction?
We give you a verdict and a confidence meter (out of 5). High confidence means all four signals (weekly cycle, recent trend, WTI crude, wholesale rack) point the same direction. Low confidence means the signals disagree. We tune the thresholds based on how the forecast plays out. Treat it as a strong nudge, not a guarantee — geopolitics and refinery outages can override it.
What's the 'rack price'?
The wholesale price paid by gas stations to fuel terminals — set by major refiners and terminals in Ontario every morning. When the wholesale rack jumps overnight, retail prices typically follow within 24 hours, so a rack spike is one of the strongest 'fill today' signals.
Where does the data come from?
Pump prices: scraped hourly from public Toronto station feeds. WTI crude: free FRED API from the St. Louis Fed (series DCOILWTICO). wholesale rack: Petro-Canada's public daily terminal postings, with NRCan wholesale data as a fallback. All sources are free and open.
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Yes — set up free alerts on our Gas Price Alerts page. Choose a daily 'fill up or wait' email that lands on mornings when prices look set to jump, or a price-drop alert when Toronto's cheapest gas hits a target you pick. Confirm your email once and you're set.
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