Articles are written by our editorial team — Toronto-based contributors who track local fuel retail and Ontario wholesale fuel markets. Each post is reviewed against current pump and rack data before publication. See our About page for editorial standards and our disclaimer for price accuracy notes.
If there's one thing Ontario drivers have learned over the past decade, it's that predicting gas prices precisely is close to impossible. But understanding the forces that move those prices — crude oil markets, refinery capacity, government policy, and seasonal demand — gives you a framework to anticipate broad trends and make smarter decisions about when to fill up.
Here's a look at the key factors shaping Toronto and Ontario gas prices in 2026, and a realistic outlook for what to expect.
The Foundation: Crude Oil Prices
Roughly 40–50% of what you pay at the pump in Ontario reflects the wholesale cost of crude oil. The rest is refining margin, taxes (federal excise, the Ontario provincial gasoline tax, and 13% HST), distribution costs, and the station's retail margin.
In 2025, global crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) traded in a wide range from roughly US$65–$85 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions, slowing Chinese demand, and U.S. shale production levels. For 2026, most analysts are cautiously expecting a similar range, with downside risk if global economic growth disappoints and upside risk if Middle Eastern tensions disrupt supply.
Unlike Western Canada, Ontario is not an oil-producing province — it imports the crude it refines and, increasingly, finished gasoline itself. Toronto pump prices therefore track the North American refined-gasoline benchmark (RBOB/NYMEX) and the regional wholesale rack far more closely than any wellhead crude price. When the Canadian dollar weakens against the U.S. dollar, imported product costs more and Toronto prices tend to follow.
Refining and Supply in Ontario
Toronto drivers are largely served by two Ontario refineries — Imperial Oil's Sarnia and Nanticoke facilities — supplemented by Shell and Suncor operations in the Sarnia "Chemical Valley" and by imported product moving through Toronto-area terminals. Crude reaches Sarnia mainly via the Enbridge pipeline system (Lines 5 and 9). Together these supply much of the gasoline consumed across the GTA.
Unplanned refinery outages — for maintenance, equipment failure, or fire — are among the most disruptive factors in Ontario retail gas prices. A major shutdown at a Sarnia or Nanticoke refinery can push Toronto prices up by 10–20 cents per litre within 24–48 hours, as wholesalers scramble to import product from the U.S. Midwest or Eastern Canada.
Planned seasonal maintenance (typically spring and fall, around the switch between winter and summer gasoline blends) is more predictable and often coincides with slightly higher prices. Unplanned incidents are essentially impossible to time.
Carbon Pricing in Ontario
This has long been the most politically charged driver of Toronto gas prices. Ontario had a complex, evolving relationship with federal carbon pricing from the introduction of the consumer carbon charge through its removal.
For context, before it was removed the federal carbon charge added a meaningful per-litre cost to gasoline. In April 2024 the charge sat at $80 per tonne of CO₂e, adding roughly 17.6 cents per litre to gasoline. It had been scheduled to keep rising each April 1, which made it a recurring upward pressure on pump prices.
That changed on April 1, 2025, when the federal government set the consumer carbon charge rate to zero, removing it from gasoline entirely. As of 2026 there is no federal carbon charge at the pump in Ontario. The political future of carbon pricing remains contested, but for now this is no longer a per-litre cost Toronto drivers are paying. See our detailed explainer: Understanding Gas Taxes in Ontario.
The Electric Vehicle Factor
Ontario EV adoption has lagged behind British Columbia and Quebec for several reasons: cold winters affect battery range, the on-and-off nature of provincial purchase incentives, and the large proportion of pickup trucks and SUVs (which have fewer EV alternatives) in the Ontario vehicle fleet.
That said, EV sales are growing. As more Torontonians switch to EVs or plug-in hybrids, long-run gasoline demand will gradually soften. This is a positive force for gas prices over a decade-long horizon, though the impact in 2026 is modest.
Seasonal Outlook for 2026
Based on the historical patterns described above, here's a rough seasonal forecast framework for Toronto gas prices in 2026 (all prices approximate and contingent on crude oil staying near US$70–$80/barrel):
- January–February: Typically lower demand, moderate prices. Expect regular around $1.55–$1.70/L depending on crude.
- March–April: Spring blend transition and pre-season demand push prices up. Expect $1.65–$1.85/L. (Note: the April 1 carbon charge increases that used to add a few cents each spring ended when the charge was removed in 2025.)
- May–August: Summer peak. Long weekends push prices to cycle highs. Expect $1.70–$1.95/L on bad days.
- September–November: Relief after Labour Day. Prices ease to $1.55–$1.70/L in October–November.
- December: Pre-Christmas spike followed by a New Year's recovery. Variable range.
These are framework estimates only. A significant crude oil price move, a major refinery outage, or a policy change on carbon pricing could shift these ranges by 20–30 cents in either direction.
What You Can Control
You can't control crude oil markets or federal policy. What you can control is which station you fill up at, when in the cycle you fill up, and how efficiently you drive. On any given day in Toronto, the cheapest available regular gas is typically 8–15 cents per litre cheaper than the most expensive option. That gap between the best and worst deal at the pump is the most reliable saving available to you — and our site exists to help you find it.
Related: Understanding Gas Taxes in Ontario · Best Times to Fill Up in Toronto